CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-19T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): --------- Notes ---------- Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2023 Oct 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center ... .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected on 17-18 Oct due to a SSBC and positive polarity CH HSS effects. Minor CME influences are anticipated for 19 Oct as the 16 CME described above passes near Earth. -------------------------- Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 971 Issue Time: 2023 Oct 17 1700 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 18: None (Below G1) Oct 19: G1 (Minor) Oct 20: G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT Comment: A CME that erupted from the Sun on 16 Oct is expected to pass near Earth on 19 Sep, which will increase the chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming on 19 and 20 Oct. NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.Lead Time: 80.35 hour(s)
Difference: 10.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-10-16T23:09Z
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